SpaceX Files for IPO, Nvidia Crushes Earnings, and the AI Infrastructure Gold Rush Heats Up
Well, the dam has finally broken. After years of speculation, Elon Musk’s space empire is coming to public markets, and the numbers are, frankly, staggering. But that’s just one piece of a broader puzzle this week — Nvidia delivered another beat-and-raise quarter that defies gravity, OpenAI is racing toward its own IPO, and the AI infrastructure buildout is creating winners and losers across multiple sectors. Let’s dig into what matters for your portfolio.
SpaceX IPO: The $1.7 Trillion Question
SpaceX filed its S-1 registration statement, and the financial details are now public for the first time. The company reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, up 33% from $14.1 billion in 2024, and is seeking to raise approximately $80 billion at a valuation of $1.7 trillion. Shares will list on Nasdaq under the ticker ‘SPCX’ as soon as June, with Goldman Sachs serving as lead underwriter.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Starlink is the cash engine — it generated over two-thirds of total revenue and posted $1.2 billion in profit in the most recent quarter alone. The launch business remains profitable too. But SpaceX is also burning cash aggressively: it reported a Q1 2026 net loss of $4.27 billion, with accumulated deficits reaching $41.3 billion. The losses are largely driven by massive capital expenditure at xAI ($7.7 billion in CapEx) and Starship development ($3 billion annual R&D).
The company claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with AI representing $26.5 trillion of that figure. That’s not a typo. The investment thesis hinges on SpaceX becoming the backbone of space-based AI compute infrastructure, with plans to deploy AI compute satellites starting in 2028.
One fascinating detail: the board granted Elon Musk 1 billion restricted Class B shares that vest only if SpaceX reaches a $7.5 trillion market cap AND establishes a permanent Mars colony with 1 million residents. That’s either visionary ambition or a compensation structure designed to never pay out — you decide. Musk retains 85% voting control via dual-class shares.
The key takeaway: SpaceX is a high-growth, high-capex story where Starlink provides the near-term cash flow to fund longer-term Mars ambitions. The IPO creates a rare opportunity to own a piece of what could be one of the most consequential companies of the century, but investors need to be comfortable with massive dilution risk, a founder with controlling voting power, and a thesis that depends on Mars colonization for full value realization.
Nvidia’s Earnings: Still the AI King, But Watch the Nuances
Nvidia reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $82 billion, up 85% year-over-year and 20% sequentially — that’s the 14th consecutive quarter of sequential growth with a record $13.5 billion sequential increase. Data center revenue hit $75 billion, up 92% year-over-year, driven by Blackwell architecture demand. The company guided Q2 revenue to $91 billion, implying 95% year-over-year growth.
Let’s break down some numbers that deserve attention:
- Hyperscale data center revenue: $38 billion (50% of data center, up 12% sequentially)
- ACIE (AI cloud and enterprise): $37 billion (up 31% sequentially, with AI cloud revenue more than tripling)
- Free cash flow: $49 billion, up from $35 billion in the prior quarter
- Gross margins: 74.9% — remarkably stable despite massive scale
Nvidia is also flexing its diversification muscles. Its Vera CPU platform is expected to generate $20 billion in standalone revenue this year, opening up a $200 billion total addressable market. The company raised its dividend from a penny to $0.25 per share and authorized $80 billion in stock buybacks.
Management described demand as “parabolic” with agentic AI as the next growth driver. H100 rental prices are up 20% year-to-date, and sovereign AI revenue grew more than 80% year-over-year across 40 countries. The company now expects to support $1 trillion in combined Blackwell and Rubin revenue from 2025 through 2027.
The risk factor: Nvidia remains locked out of the Chinese market (potentially $50 billion annually) due to US export restrictions, and China data center compute revenue is excluded from forward guidance. Competition from AMD, Broadcom, and Google’s TPUs is intensifying, though the overall pie is growing fast enough to support multiple winners for now.
Shares slipped about 1% after earnings, which tells you something about how high expectations have become. When an 85% revenue beat isn’t enough to drive the stock up, we’re in interesting territory.
OpenAI IPO: The Next Big Filing
OpenAI could confidentially file for its IPO as soon as Friday, targeting a September listing. The company has reached a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate in 2025 (up from $6 billion in 2024) with 700 million active weekly users. It closed a $122 billion private financing round in March and has $1.4 trillion committed over 7-8 years for data centers.
The timing makes strategic sense — AI valuations are elevated, and the market’s appetite for high-growth tech stories is strong. The IPO would follow resolution of Elon Musk’s $150 billion lawsuit against the company. OpenAI appears to be moving quickly to capitalize on favorable market conditions before sentiment shifts.
Between SpaceX and OpenAI, we’re looking at potentially $2.5 trillion+ in new IPO listings hitting public markets within months. That’s unprecedented and will likely reshape the tech landscape for years to come.
AI Infrastructure: Winners, Losers, and Structural Shifts
The Blackstone-Google $5 billion joint venture to build TPU-based AI clouds is a fascinating development. The partnership aims to deploy 500 megawatts of capacity by 2027, fully equity-funded — which creates a cost-of-capital advantage over debt-heavy competitors. Following the announcement, DA Davidson downgraded both CoreWeave (CRWV) on thin margins and Nebius Group (NBIS) citing valuation saturation.
This is a structural shift that favors vertically integrated hyperscalers with strong balance sheets over debt-funded mid-tier operators. CoreWeave has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.68 with borrowing rates reportedly exceeding 9%, while Nebius trades at 93x annual sales. When Blackstone and Google can bring $5 billion in interest-free equity capital to the table, the math gets ugly for leveraged competitors.
Applied Digital (APLD) bucked the trend, announcing a 15-year take-or-pay lease with a US hyperscaler for 300 MW of capacity, valued at approximately $7.5 billion in base contracted revenue (potentially $18.2 billion with options). Shares rose 6.28% after hours, showing that direct hyperscaler partnerships still work — it’s the middlemen that face headwinds.
On the energy side, Williams Companies (WMB) continues to be a compelling AI-adjacent play. Its backlog rose to $15.5 billion in 2025 from $11.8 billion in 2024, driven by AI data centers, coal-to-gas conversions, and LNG exports. Adjusted EBITDA grew at a 9% CAGR from 2020-2025 and is expected to accelerate to 11% CAGR through 2028. With an enterprise value of $130.5 billion, it trades at 16x adjusted EBITDA — reasonable for a regulated-like infrastructure asset with AI tailwinds.
Earnings Highlights Worth Your Attention
Block (XYZ) — The Cash App Machine
Block delivered Q1 gross profit of $2.91 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with adjusted operating income of $728 million (25% margin). Cash App gross profit jumped 38% to $1.91 billion. The company raised full-year guidance to 19% gross profit growth and 62% EPS growth. The aggressive restructuring ($852 million in costs, 40% workforce reduction) suggests management is serious about profitability. The $240 million DOJ reserve for Cash App compliance issues is a risk to watch, but the underlying business momentum is impressive.
Target (TGT) — The Turnaround Gains Traction
Target reported its best comparable sales growth in years at 5.6%, driven by 4.7% traffic increase. Revenue hit $25.44 billion versus $24.66 billion estimated. Same-day delivery sales grew 27%, and non-merchandise revenue (membership, Roundel) was up ~25%. Management raised full-year net sales growth guidance to ~4% (from 2% previously). The question is whether this momentum can hold through Q2 when tougher comparisons hit, particularly around the Nintendo Switch 2 launch.
Palantir (PLTR) — Accelerating Growth, Expensive Stock
Palantir reported Q1 revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year-over-year (accelerating from 70% in Q4). US revenue surged 104%, and total remaining deal value nearly doubled to $11.8 billion. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $7.65-7.66 billion (implying ~71% growth). Despite these numbers, shares are down ~23% year-to-date. Why? The stock trades at ~66x sales and over 150x earnings. Even with exceptional growth, the market is demanding proof that this trajectory is sustainable before paying nosebleed multiples.
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) — A Tale of Two Businesses
e.l.f. delivered its 29th consecutive quarter of net sales growth, with Q4 sales up 35% year-over-year. But the headline masks a critical divergence: Rhode contributed $113 million (34 percentage points of that growth), while e.l.f. brand growth moderated to low single digits in recent weeks. Unit volumes declined 5 points following an August 2025 price increase. For fiscal 2027, the company projects net sales growth of only 12-14%, with Rhode contributing ~9 percentage points. The core brand is clearly decelerating, and the Rhode acquisition is doing the heavy lifting. Watch whether management can re-accelerate the e.l.f. brand or if this becomes a story of diminishing organic momentum.
Clean Energy Plays Tied to AI Demand
Bloom Energy gained 8% on a partnership with Nebius Group for 328 megawatts of fuel cell deployments for AI infrastructure. While no financial terms were disclosed, the narrative around AI driving distributed energy demand is gaining momentum.
Plug Power is also capitalizing on the AI-energy narrative, with revenue growth accelerating and margins improving as its turnaround progresses. The stock shows potential short-squeeze interest and growing order flow. These are higher-risk plays, but the thematic logic — AI data centers need reliable, clean power — is sound.
Biotech: Relay Therapeutics Shows How It’s Done
Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) shares surged 7.87% following positive Phase 2 results for zovegalisib in vascular anomalies: 60% of patients responded at 12 weeks, with nearly all experiencing symptomatic improvements. Barclays raised its price target to $27 (from $21) and Citizens JMP to $21 (from $19), both maintaining buy ratings. The company announced a secondary offering potentially exceeding $200 million, which is modestly dilutive given the ~$2.5 billion market cap but provides funding for commercialization. Trading volume spiked to 6.5 million versus a 3.3 million average — institutional interest is clearly building.
The Bottom Line
We’re in a peculiar market moment. Nvidia is printing money at an unprecedented rate for a hardware company, SpaceX and OpenAI are preparing to give retail investors access to previously private growth stories, and the AI infrastructure buildout is creating both massive opportunities and significant risks for leveraged operators.
The SpaceX IPO will be the most anticipated listing in history. The question isn’t whether there will be demand — it’s whether the company’s enormous capital requirements, Musk’s controlling stake, and the speculative nature of the Mars thesis will create the margin of safety that disciplined investors require. For now, treat it as a high-conviction watchlist item and prepare your capital allocation framework for when the S-1 becomes fully available.
Nvidia remains the gold standard in AI hardware with unmatched economics, but the bar for expectations is now extraordinarily high. The real opportunity may lie in the infrastructure-adjacent plays — Williams Companies, Eagle Materials, and energy transition names that benefit from the buildout without direct AI execution risk.
As always, separate the investment from the speculation. The AI theme is real. The valuations in some corners are not. Your job is to find the gap between them.